The answer first: 15 extra visits
Move your return rate five points on 300 monthly customers and you get 15 extra visits. At a 45 SAR average ticket, that's 675 SAR more revenue a month, or roughly 8,100 SAR over a year. Everything below is the sheet that produces that figure, with the assumptions written out so you can swap in your own numbers.
Four inputs drive the whole model: the number of different people you serve in a month, their average ticket, the share of them who come back, and your gross margin. For this worked example those are 300 people, 45 SAR, 20%, and 60%. The shop is hypothetical. The arithmetic isn't.
None of this needs a till integration. Waya doesn't have one, and the model doesn't require one, because the counting happens on the customer's card instead of inside your POS. If you take one rule away, take this one: five points of return rate on 300 customers is 15 visits, and 15 times your ticket is your monthly delta.
The sheet, column by column
Open a spreadsheet with one row per month. Column A is the month. Column B is distinct customers served, not receipts: 300. Column C is average ticket in SAR: 45. Column D is your baseline return rate: 20%. Column E is gross margin: 60%. Those are the only cells you type by hand.
Next comes the baseline block, all formulas. Column F is returning customers, B x D = 60. Column G is the extra visits those returners make, assumed at one each to start, so 60. Column H is repeat revenue, G x C = 2,700 SAR. Column I is repeat gross profit, H x E = 1,620 SAR. That block is what your existing regulars are already worth in a month, before you change anything at all.
The scenario block sits beside it. Column J is your target return rate, D + 5 = 25%. Column K is returning customers at that rate, B x J = 75. Column L is extra visits against baseline, K - F = 15. Column M is the revenue delta, L x C = 675 SAR. Column N is the gross-profit delta, M x E = 405 SAR.
Two columns finish the row. Column O is the fixed monthly cost of the tooling: 85 SAR on Waya's Growth plan, or 0 SAR while you're still under 100 customers on the free plan. Column P is net gross profit, N - O = 320 SAR a month. Copy the row down twelve times and you have the year: 8,100 SAR of extra revenue, about 4,860 SAR of gross profit, against 1,020 SAR of subscription, or 867 SAR if you pay annually at 15% off.
Then change one input and watch the sheet move. At a 25 SAR ticket, the same five points is 375 SAR a month. At 90 SAR, it's 1,350 SAR. Ticket size is usually the loudest number in this model, which is why a barber shop and a juice bar should never copy each other's conclusions about loyalty.
Column B is where most sheets break
Most owners know their receipt count, not their customer count. If you ring up 900 receipts a month and type 900 into column B, you've counted your best regular nine times and your return rate collapses toward nothing. Column B has to be distinct people inside a fixed window, and that number is almost always much smaller than the one on your daily report.
Use distinct visit-days as the unit. Two scans on the same afternoon are one visit. Someone who came in March and again in April is a returner. That is the strict definition we use internally, and across shops on Waya it puts the return rate near 20%, which is why 20% is the baseline in this model rather than something more flattering. It's a platform-wide count, not a forecast for your shop.
Before a card exists you're estimating column B. After it exists you're counting it. Enrollment is a QR scan, a first name, a mobile number, then one tap to add the pass to Apple Wallet or Google Wallet, and every later scan lands in one dashboard that shows visits and the new-versus-returning split. Note the gap honestly: it counts enrolled customers, not everyone who walks in. If 40% of your 300 enroll, the sheet measures 120 people and infers the rest.
Run 60 to 90 days of baseline before you launch anything. Without it, month one will show a 25% return rate and you'll credit the card for regulars who were coming anyway. Same window length, same definition, then compare.
The cost column nobody fills in
A free reward isn't free, and it doesn't cost retail price either. On a 45 SAR item at 60% gross margin, the reward costs you 18 SAR of goods. A buy-six-get-the-seventh card that gets completed generated 270 SAR of purchases first, so the reward is 6.7% of that revenue and takes your effective margin on that customer from 60% down to about 53%.
That cost only fires on success. Nobody redeems a seventh visit without paying for six, so the reward comes out of the visits it caused. The 85 SAR in column O is the part you owe whether the model works or not, and break-even on it is roughly four extra visits a month: 85 divided by the 27 SAR of gross profit sitting inside a 45 SAR ticket.
Column O also has a step in it. The free plan is 0 SAR forever with no credit card, capped at 100 customers, 100 wallet messages a month, one stamp card, and one branch. At 300 customers a month with 40% enrolling, you'd pass 100 enrolled customers in about 25 days, so treat the free tier as a proving ground at this volume rather than a permanent home. When you hit the cap, already-enrolled customers keep their cards and keep collecting.
The bigger lever is frequency, not conversion
Five points of return rate is the number owners chase. It's rarely the biggest number in the sheet. Take the 60 returners you already have and get each of them to make two extra visits instead of one: column G goes from 60 to 120, and repeat revenue rises 2,700 SAR a month. That is four times the five-point lift, from people who have already decided they like your shop.
So give it a proper cell. Column G stops being a hardcoded 1 and becomes extra visits per returner, which is the single figure most worth arguing about with your staff. Reward thresholds push it around: a six-stamp card asks for a rhythm, a three-stamp card asks for a habit, and the sheet will tell you which one your ticket and margin can carry.
Reminders are what nudge that cell. Wallet passes update themselves, so a message lands on the lock screen with no app to install and no SMS involved, and passive branch-proximity reminders are configured on the Branches screen. The free plan includes 100 messages a month and Growth includes 5,000. No customer's phone number goes to a third-party messaging app, and nobody can promise you a specific uplift from any of it, which is the whole reason you keep the sheet.
Run it for 90 days, then decide
Fill three rows of baseline before you launch, three rows after, and compare like for like. Your decision threshold isn't a percentage, it's a visit count. At a 45 SAR ticket and 60% margin, four extra visits a month covers the subscription and 15 extra visits is a 320 SAR net month.
Watch two cells while it runs. If average ticket in column C slides after launch, your reward is buying discounts rather than visits. If returning customers in column F climb while extra visits per returner stays flat, you're forming new habits but not deepening them, and that's a messaging problem rather than a card-design one.
None of this needs new hardware, a POS integration, or an app for your customers to download. It needs honest counting and the discipline to kill the program if column P stays negative for three straight months. Build the sheet first. The card is just the instrument that fills it in.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate my shop's return rate?
Count the distinct customers you served in a fixed window, count how many of them came back on a different day, and divide the second number by the first. For 300 customers a month with 60 of them coming back, that's 20%. Use distinct visit-days as the unit, so two scans in one afternoon count as one visit, and keep the window the same length every time you measure it.
Is a five-point improvement in return rate actually worth the subscription?
On 300 customers a month, five points is 15 extra visits, which is 675 SAR of revenue at a 45 SAR ticket and about 405 SAR of gross profit at 60% margin. Waya's Growth plan is 85 SAR a month, so break-even sits at about four extra visits. The five points are not guaranteed to anyone; the break-even point is arithmetic you can check against your own ticket tonight.
What does a free stamp reward really cost me?
It costs you the cost of goods, not the retail price: about 18 SAR on a 45 SAR item at 60% gross margin. On a buy-six-get-the-seventh card, that reward follows 270 SAR of purchases, so it's 6.7% of the revenue it produced and takes your effective margin on that customer from 60% to roughly 53%. Price the reward off your margin, not off your menu.
Can I track any of this without a POS integration?
Yes. Waya has no POS integration and no hardware, so staff scan the customer's card on an ordinary phone and the counting happens on the card rather than in your register. Customer counts, visits, and the new-versus-returning split come from the dashboard, and your till keeps working exactly the way it does today.
What happens after 100 customers on the free plan?
Enrollment stops at 100 customers on the free plan, and everyone already enrolled keeps their card and keeps collecting stamps. Growth is 85 SAR a month, or 867 SAR a year with the 15% annual discount, for unlimited customers and 5,000 wallet messages a month. A shop serving 300 customers a month usually crosses the 100-customer cap inside the first month, so budget column O from the start.